Discuss whether the undervalued yuan (RMB) is the only cause of China’s rising inflation and trade surplus with the US. [25] (Rephrased Economics Question)

In recent years, it has been argued that the undervalued renminbi (RMB / yuan) is the major cause of China’s burgeoning inflation and massive trade surplus vis-à-vis developed countries, especially the USA. From 2007-21012, economists worldwide argued that China should revalue the yuan.

Discuss whether “the undervalued yuan” is the only cause of China’s rising inflation and huge trade surplus with the USA. [25]

Introduction

China has often been accused by the West of using her fixed exchange rate to maintain an “undervalued yuan”, meaning that her currency (yuan, renminbi, RMB) is cheaper than it otherwise should be in a floating exchange rate, relative to other currencies. 

This Economics paper argues that having an undervalued currency encourages demand for Chinese exports, which could arguably lead to demand-pull inflation, whilst concomitantly causing imported inflation for China, as its imports from its trading partners are relatively more expensive. Hence, it can be strongly argued that China’s inflationary woes indeed stem in part from an undervalued yuan, and, to a large extent, the high demand for low-priced Chinese exports is responsible for China’s huge trade surplus.

Inflation

First and foremost, it has to be argued that China’s inflationary woes stem partly from the undervalued RMB. With a relatively undervalued RMB, Chinese goods appear cheaper relative to other countries’ goods, and this causes an increase in the demand for Chinese exports, in contradistinction to other countries’ domestically produced goods or even goods from other exporting countries. This is because with increased demand for Chinese exports, (X-M) increases, and since AD = C + I + G + (X-M), there arises demand-pull inflation. Inflation is defined as a persistent and sustained increase in the general price level, and demand-pull inflation is caused by rapid and persistent increases in AD.

On the cost-push side, the undervalued yuan may have made imported inflation a real possibility and thus may have pushed up the AS curve. This is because if China imports inputs or factors of production, especially and furthermore so if those natural resources are then used as inputs to produce exports, then this might cause inflation in China if these inputs rise in price. Given that the cheaper yuan makes other countries’ currencies look more expensive, this is a real possibility.

Inflation in China, on the other hand, is also caused by the rapid growth they experienced in recent times. There has been rising domestic consumption due to the rapidly expanding middle classes in China, and that would have raised C. At the same time, rising optimism about business prospects have led firms to undertake investments, thus raising I as well. Since AD = C + I + G + (X-M), it is clear that these increase AD. Hence, AD also shifts to the right, thus causing demand-pull inflation due to rapid domestic Chinese economic growth, which is not solely related to growth in exports.

Trade Surpluses

Secondly, the “undervalued yuan” can be blamed for the mounting trade surplus China has with its trading partners, predominantly America, since American consumers’ high demand for cheap Chinese goods caused the Chinese to sell massive amounts of goods to Americans. As China uses a fixed exchange rate regime, this balance of trade disequilibrium is not automatically corrected, unlike under a freely floating exchange rate regime. Concomitantly, prices of imports remain relatively high, from the Chinese perspective, since the yuan was kept low. This leads in theory to import expenditure being low, whilst export expenditure is high. Hence, the low value of the Chinese yuan will continue to encourage other countries to import cheap Chinese goods, and thus incur a growing trade deficit; on the other hand, China will, theoretically, continue to accumulate surpluses given the low value of the yuan. Hence, it seems that the criticisms of the undervalued yuan seem justified here.

Other Countries’ Declining Comparative Advantage

Nonetheless, the “undervalued yuan” cannot be the only cause of this huge trade surplus; America’s slowly declining comparative advantage, where comparative advantage refers to the relatively lower opportunity cost of a country in producing a good relative to other trading countries, in manufacturing has led to weakening US exports, whilst, on the other hand, it might be possible to argue that China has developed a new, dynamic comparative advantage in manufacturing, especially cheap and lower-end products. For instance, the American steel industry has been too reliant on protectionism for many years, and this has contributed to her mounting trade deficit, because it has become less export competitive, while the Chinese improved consistently over recent years. Hence, perhaps the trade surpluses are due to American weaknesses and Chinese strengths.

Conclusion

Thus, while it can be strongly argued that the “undervalued yuan” does indeed have a part to play in China’s rising inflation and huge trade surpluses, it cannot be considered the only cause of these problems, and China’s increasing prosperity, especially for the middle classes, her rising economic growth, and the falling productivity and comparative advantage of the developed nations who are her trade partners are realistic and relevant alternative explanations for the same phenomena. 

JC Economics Essays: Tutor's Comments - This Economics essay was actually written under examination conditions by a Chinese student. First, it has to be praised: the English is very well written and fluent, and the student has clearly got a very good understanding of the Chinese economy and a good knowledge of international economic events. Secondly, it has to be said that the quantity and quality of this Economics essay far exceed what I would have expected as an Economics tutor, because this was written under examination conditions and by someone whose native language is not English. This just goes to show that if one puts one heart into doing something, and tries one's best - one can achieve many great things in life. As an Economics tutor, seeing such work and effort in my students' Economics essays is one of the joys of teaching. If you were to write this essay, how would you approach it? Would the approach be similar or different? Thanks for reading and cheers. 

(b) "Fiscal policy works best to achieve price stability in a small and open economy like Singapore." To what extent do you agree with this assertion? [17]

(b) "Fiscal policy works best to achieve price stability in a small and open economy like Singapore." To what extent do you agree with this assertion?

Inflation brings about some adverse effects to the economy and hence it is important for governments to implement policies to curb inflation. The policies used would differ according to the type of inflation as well as the nature of the economy. This paper discusses if fiscal policy works best to achieve price stability in a small and open economy, and uses Singapore as a case study in particular. First, it should be noted that Singapore is a small and open economy with no natural resources, relying heavily on trade, international capital flows, and foreign direct investments to drive growth. This paper argues that fiscal policy can be used, but its impacts are massively limited given Singapore’s context.

What is fiscal policy?

Fiscal policy refers to the manipulation of government expenditure and taxation to achieve macroeconomic goals. A contractionary fiscal policy could be used to curb inflation. Government expenditure could be reduced or taxation could be increased. With a lower government expenditure, this would translate to a lower aggregate demand (AD) which consists of AD = Consumption + Government expenditure + Investment + Net Exports, or AD = C + I + G + (X-M).

Through the multiplier process, a fall in G would lead to a multiple fall in AD. With a fall in AD, firms would accumulate inventories and this would be a signal to reduce production and output. Firms will reduce their number of workers hence resulting in a fall in output and a rise in unemployment and a fall in national income. With a fall in household incomes, there is a fall in spending and hence through the multiplier process, this would result in a contractionary effect on the economy. Hence, AD would shift to the left as shown, resulting in a fall in the general price level.

With higher taxes such as income taxes, this would reduce the disposable incomes of consumers and hence this would also reduce consumption expenditure, shifting the AD curve to the left, and, hence, also resulting in a fall in the general price level.

Limitations of Fiscal Policy in Singapore’s Context

However, the effectiveness of fiscal policy would depend on the size of the multiplier. In the case of Singapore, the size of the multiplier is small due to the high marginal propensities to save and import. This is firstly due to compulsory savings such as the Central Provident Fund (CPF), and, secondly, a high marginal propensity to import, among other factors. Because Singapore is a small and open economy that relies heavily on foreign trade, there would be high leakages from the economy. Also, it would also be difficult to reduce government expenditure for long-term, major projects. Increasing personal income tax could also result in a disincentive to work and a higher corporate tax could drive businesses away from Singapore.

Other Possible Solutions

On the other hand, the Singapore government can also use contractionary monetary policies (in Singapore’s case, an exchange rate policy), or supply-side policies instead to tackle inflation, rather than just fiscal policy.

Monetary Policy, in Singapore’s Context

Monetary policy refers to the use of interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives. In Singapore’s case, her monetary policy is tied to exchange rates, and Singapore uses a form of exchange rate policy because Singapore is dependent on external demand. Therefore, it is more effective to control exports and imports in Singapore’s context. Hence, the exchange rate is used as a tool of monetary policy in Singapore instead.

In Singapore, a managed float system is adopted where the Singapore dollar is allowed to fluctuate within a band against a basket of currencies of her trade partners. The central bank will then intervene in the foreign exchange market to move the exchange rate to a desired level by buying up or selling the Singapore dollar using her foreign reserves, when the currency level approaches the bands. For instance, to curb inflation, the Singapore central bank (the MAS) could buy up the Singapore dollar, resulting in an appreciation of the Singapore dollar. This appreciation of the Singapore dollar would lead to a fall in the price of imports in terms of Singapore dollars. This would lead to a lower cost of living as the price of imported products would be lower. With a lack of natural resources, Singapore depends heavily on imports as inputs to manufacture our exports. Therefore, the fall in the price of imports would lead to a fall in the cost of production.

The lower price of imports would also mean that consumers switch away from local goods and purchase more imports instead, assuming they are substitutes. With an appreciation of the Singapore dollar, this would mean that Singapore’s exports are more expensive in foreign currency terms and hence less price-competitive. Assuming demand for exports to be price-elastic, this would lead to a more than proportionate fall in quantity demanded of exports from Singapore. If the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, this would lead to a fall in net exports and hence a fall in AD. The AD curve would shift to the left, resulting in a fall in the general price level, ceteris paribus.

Limitations of Singapore’s Exchange Rate Policy

However, there are limitations to the effectiveness of Singapore’s exchange rate policy. Intervention in the foreign exchange market to generate an appreciation of the currency would require Singapore to maintain significant reserves. A fall in export earnings through an appreciation of the dollar would also lead to a worsening of the current account.

On the other hand, besides fiscal and monetary policies, the Singapore government could also use supply-side policies to tackle both demand-pull and cost-push inflation. With supply-side policies, the aggregate supply (AS) could be increased through labour retraining and education. By increasing the productivity of workers, in the long run, the cost of production would fall, resulting in a rightward shift of the LRAS curve, leading to a fall in the general price level, ceteris paribus. Cost-push inflation can also be curbed using wage and income policies. For instance, a flexible wage structure would enable wages to be adjusted downwards. In Singapore, the National Wages Council (NWC) recommends the level of wage increases. This could control labour costs and ensure that wage increases do not outstrip productivity increases.

However, supply-side policies would not work effectively if AD continues to increase. Therefore, there is a need to use both contractionary fiscal or monetary policy to reduce AD to reduce the upward pressure on prices. In the long run, supply-side policies are important to curb inflation.

Conclusions

In concluding, it should be mentioned there could also be considerable time lags involved in the implementation of policies. It takes time for policymakers to gather data. There could also be implementation lags due to the time taken to implement suitable policies. Once policies are implemented, there could also be impact lags as it takes time for policies to take effect. Also, due to the characteristics of the Singapore economy, it is arguably better to adopt contractionary monetary policy using exchange rates to curb inflation, as Singapore’s monetary policy is in the form of exchange rate policy. This poses a tricky problem, in that, with a small multiplier in Singapore’s context, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is limited, yet the benefits of supply-side policies might only be reaped in the long run. However, it should also be noted that curbing inflation could lead to a trade-off with another macroeconomic objective of unemployment. By curbing inflation, a fall in national output will occur and that might lead to an increase in unemployment. In the final analysis, fiscal policy is only one of many solutions and its impact is massively limited in Singapore, and as such as plethora of policies should be used instead of one single policy.

JC Economics Essays: Tutor's Comments - This paper was written by an Economics tutor friend of mine, who was my former classmate at the NIE (National Institute of Education), doing PGDE (Postgraduate Diploma in Education, JC, Economics specialisation). For part (a) of this question, see the suggested "model" Economics answer why low inflation is an important macroeconomic aim of the Singapore government.  My usual tutor's comments and questions apply here to this essay: what do you like about this paper, and what have you learnt here? Also, what have you studied that is different or similar to what is written in this Economics paper? Using your knowledge of macroeconomics, what diagram must you use here to explain the words? Remember, although this was written under simulated examination conditions by an Economics tutor, you can always think of other ways to improve it, refine it, and make it better suit the context. Also remember that you should know how and when to apply your Economics concepts and theories, rather than just merely memorising and regurgitating. Be sure to think hard, clearly, and properly when writing your Economics essays, especially during examination conditions. Thanks for reading, and cheers!

(a) Discuss the likely causes of a rise in consumer spending in Singapore [10]

(a) Discuss the likely causes of a rise in consumer spending in Singapore [10]

This paper discusses the likely causes of a rise in consumer spending in Singapore. Consumption refers to the planned spending on consumer goods and consists of both autonomous and induced consumption. There are several factors that can cause a rise in consumer spending in Singapore.

Firstly, induced consumption could be due to national income changes. Singapore may experience high economic growth rates in recent years which led to the growing affluence of Singaporeans. This rise in national income translates into an increase in purchasing power which would mean that households would be able to spend more on consumer goods and services. Eventually, there will be a rise in consumption indicated by a shift of the curve. However, the extent of the rise in consumption depends on the value of the MPC and whether the rise in national income is permanent.

Apart from this, autonomous consumption also increases. This could be done to firstly, consumers expectations. Strong economic forecasts and stability in both internal and external environment would lead to an optimistic outlook on the economy. Therefore, there will be strong consumer confidence as people tend to save less for rainy days and expect future increase in income, leading to a rise in consumption. However, the extent of the rise depends on how optimistic consumers are judging from the outlook and whether this outlook is a temporary or permanent phenomena.

Secondly, consumption increase may be due to government policies or disposable income rise. A fall in income tax rates (which reduces the reliance on direct taxes) and the increase in transfer payments in recent years have led to an increase in the disposable income. Households are likely to down more due to the increase in purchasing power. However, the extent of increase in consumption depends on the propensity to consume and other factors - for example, a rise in GST from 5% to 7%

Lastly, interest rates and credit availability also affect consumption. Lower cost of borrowing and loosening of credit facilities as seen by growing varieties of credit cards available in the market and the aggressive advertising tactics that follow show an encouragement on the bank's part to consume. It is now cheaper and easier to borrow in order to purchase consumer durables and there is a reduced incentive to save due to lower returns, therefore leading to a rise in consumption.

The extent of the rise, however, depends on the interest elasticity of consumption, the economic outlook and availability of past savings.

JC Economics Essays - Economics Tutor's Comment: This response is quite a good attempt at answering the economics question posed, especially during examination conditions. Fair work, and a good effort, given that this was done under "A" level Economics examination conditions. However, there are some possible areas of improvement - putting yourself into the shoes of an Economics tutor or examiner, what would you do to improve this economics paper, other than drawing in the correct Economics diagram and then explaining it carefully? What other economics details should have brought into this paper in order to improve it? Thanks for reading and cheers. Suggested grade: 8/10.